ASML closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 27, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, ASML ended Tuesday at 366.37 edging lower $1.12 (-0.3%), significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.82%). Today's close at 366.37 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 25th. Trading $2.10 higher after the open, ASML Holding was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ASML as at Oct 27, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $6.05 (1.64%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.95. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for ASML.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 370.91 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 364.00 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 364.46. The last time this happened on October 21st, ASML actually lost -1.96% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 364.00 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous low" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for ASML Holding. Out of 426 times, ASML closed higher 53.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.98% with an average market move of 0.83%.