TBOND closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
U.S. Treasury Bond (TBOND) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TBOND finished the week 0.45% higher at 174.844 after losing $0.312 (-0.18%) today. Trading $0.468 higher after the open, 30-year Bond was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 175.000, the Bond confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.500 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TBOND as at Oct 16, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.062 (0.61%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.078. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TBOND.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for T-Bond. Out of 382 times, TBOND closed higher 57.59% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.02% with an average market move of 0.23%.
With three out of the other four Bond Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are TNOTE10Y losing -0.06% and TNOTE5Y closing -0.04% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been BUND closing 0.18% higher. Read more